Gilbert Cranberg: DAVID REMNICK’S FORAY INTO FORTUNE TELLING

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did less well than expected in the January 22 Israeli national election, so he is counted as a loser. Also losing was someone who didn’t even run, David Remnick, editor of the New Yorker.

Remnick spent 11 pages of the January 21 issue of his magazine expounding confidently on the chances of Naftali Bennett, a right- wing candidate with ties to the settler movement. Remnick called Bennett and his party, Habayit Hayehudi (the Jewish Home), the “central story of this political moment” and reported that “many expect a third-place finish behind Labor, which would be a remarkable achievement; second place is not inconceivable.”

Remnick’s crystal ball was somewhat cloudy. Instead of Bennett being the central story, someone whose name was barely mentioned in the New Yorker piece, Yair Lapid, was. He finished second in the vote and his party, Yesh Atid, became the second largest faction in parliament.

Bennett? His party improved from three seats in the last parliament to 12 seats now, an impressive gain, but not what Remnick’s New Yorker readers were led to expect.

Prophesy is risky business, but for journalists it is irresistible. A good deal of what passes for journalism is not about what actually happened, but what will or is likely to happen. Remnick would be hailed today as genius, or at least as a seer, if he had fastened on Lapid instead of Bennett as the centerpiece for his article. Better luck next time.

Foretelling the future has been a pastime through the ages.  Monarchs had such faith in the predictive powers of soothsayers that no respectable court was without a contingent of the occult to keep their bosses abreast of things. Nowadays, psychics still do a brisk business.

No journalist would dare consult entrails as part of research for a story, but it’s commonplace for journalists to rely on “analysts” to inform them. David Remnick’s foray into fortune telling did not turn out too well, but don’t expect the press to give up entirely on the reading of tea leaves.

I once did an analysis of newspaper content and found that much –too much, in my view – was not fact-based but was speculation about possible or likely outcomes. Pollsters I know emphasize that they are not in the predicting business. Rather, they say, they are presenting a snapshot of events at a particular time.

Journalists are in that business, too. Too bad that they don’t always stick to business.